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Britain off Europe will spread to the global economy

  • Author:chois.dong
  • Source:www.boreway.com
  • Release on:2016-06-27

British referendum "off Europe," the news came out, the global financial market turmoil, the British pound fell to the lowest level in 30 years, European and Asian stock market crash, three major US stock indexes fell. This statement was devastated scene reminiscent of the 2008 US investment bankLehmanBrothers collapse set off a financial crisis. British "off Europe" will trigger similar systemic crisis? Some experts and market analysts believe, will not.

India, "Financial Express" comment, despite the current financial markets, "Fury," the British "off Europe" and the impact of the Lehman collapse is not an order of magnitude, will not derail the world economic recovery from the track.

The report quoted a report of BNP Paribas Securities Department, said:. "Financial markets will make a strong reaction in the day, and changed the world, but from the market point of view, this is not a systematic 'Lehman moment' is not the most political uncertainty, (rather than economic), in addition to the central bank's response is equally important. "

International rating agency Standard & Poor's said, "take off in Europe", the United Kingdom may lose AAA credit rating,British economyFacing the risk of recession next year, provided that if the United Kingdom and the EU and its member states "could not agree on a" new free trade agreements.

In accordance with the EU's "Lisbon Treaty" Article 50, the United Kingdom and the European Union for two years to do a variety of procedures "transfer relationship" and to finalize a new trade agreement with the EU and its member states. But in fact, some experts estimate that the process could take seven years, which may hurt the uncertainty of the UK economy and capital markets.

IMF said in a report published before the referendum on the United Kingdom also expressed similar concerns. The report said: "This process and the final result will be outstanding in a few years, we can not help but have a transitional period dismal results, which will seriously affect investment and market sentiment."

Goldman Sachs Group do not think the British "off Europe" can be compared with the Lehman bankruptcy. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report, after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection, Stoxx Europe 600 stock index fell 46%, while the British referendum results were announced, European stock markets fell not exceed 15%.

Goldman Sachs believes that if you have to compare, for better comparability British "off Europe" and the 2011 European sovereign debt crisis. However, Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer believes that risk "off Europe" Britain will not be higher than the debt crisis in Europe.

Kramer said the British "off Europe," the consequences of high levels of uncertainty will continue for some time, the UK and Europe could hurt the real economy. However, if the British and the EU share the separation can "clean" in the eurozone and the UK economy will not fall into recession